According to the good folks over at Blue NC, Grier Martin called to say that he’s passing on a challenge to Sen. Elizabeth Dole:
That leaves the race in the hands of little known fundraiser Jim Neal. While national Democrats have done a good job convincing themselves that second-tier candidates Jeff Merkley and Marty Chavez are really first-tier candidates, there’s no way to spin Neal’s candidacy in such a way.
For those keeping track at home, the following North Carolina Democrats have passed on the race:
* Gov. Mark Easley
* Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue
* Treasurer Richard Moore
* AG Roy Cooper
* Raleigh Mayor Charlie Meeker
* Congressman Brad Miller
* State Sen. Kay Hagan
* State Rep. Grier Martin
(Presumably, Congressmen Bob Etheridge, Mike McIntyre, and David Price are also not running)
Maybe Erskine Bowles is still availible.
While Elizabeth Dole has vulnerabilities and North Carolina has a fervent Democratic population, this latest recruitment failure signals that Dole is likely to get a pass this election. Neal may make the race competitive enough for Dole to have to pay attention to it, but her large warchest and sound campaigning skills should allow her to win re-election without a sweat.
Who’s saying Merkley and Chavez are first tier candidates? Where is your information for that? They are second tier candidates, but from what I can see, they are second tier candidates that can win.
Smith’s approval ratings are low, leaving him vulnerable as soon as the commercials kick in to start tearing him down, he’ll have nothing to stand on.
Chavez was virtually tied with Wilson in the recent poll, and lost to Pearce, so yes he is a second tier candidate, but it appears as though he can win depending on the nominee. (But how accurate is early polling? Also, a tie isn’t a good place to start for Wilson, since she is from the defending party).
I wouldn’t give up on Denish so soon. She said she would have an announcement by the end of the week, but we haven’t gotten anything from her. She is seriously considering the Senate race still.
~~~~ As for North Carolina, I wish Edwards would just run for senate, but who knows what he’s thinking he’ll do. A former senator and former VP Nominee isn’t really much credentials to do something like Al Gore. He really should get back into the political spotlight one way or another.
Even so, if Dole gets a free pass, I don’t mind if we are going to seriously challenge 10-12 other senate seats. I would also wait to see Neal’s fundraising. If he doesn’t do anything special, then forget him. But he has fundraised for a lot of significant races, and he probably has a lot of significant connections.
NC sure is the most disappointing seat this cycle. Liddy Dole looks really vulnerable on paper. Oh well, there are plenty other juicy targets including Oregon and New Mexico where Merkley and, if it comes to it, Chavez can both win.
Of this diary getting front-paged?
while NC- it may not happen.
New Mexico and Oregon are blue states at the Presidential level in 2008. We should expect the 2008 Democratic Presidential Ticket to carry NM and OR.
Regarding the Senate Races in NM and OR. The top tier candidates in NM(Richardson,Udall,or Denish) or OR(Kitzhaber,Defazio,Bluemanauer)- The individaul top tier candidates benifit from personal popularity/crossover appeal.
Second tier candidates like Chavez(NM)and Merkley(OR) benifit from Presidential coattails. Voters in NM and OR are likely to be Anti Republican at the national and state level- their by voting against Wilson/Pearce-NM or Smih-OR. Voters in NM- can say- I don’t know much about Chavez but he is a Democrat- so he can’t be that bad.
In NC- The state is Red at the Presidential Level- The Democratic Candidate has to appeal to Republicans.
would defeat Dole, but he wont run unfortunately.